Plan promotions with retailers based on predicted sales effects

Manufacturers plan promotions with retailers based on predicted sales effects

Needs setupAI Act: no extra obligationsForecasting from figuresFood & consumer goods

Fits: Sales · Marketing & communications · Leaders & strategy · Finance & accounting

Before the annual negotiations with retailers, you know better which promotion brings how much in additional sales and how much repeat buying is lost afterwards. Production, advertising allowances and delivery volumes match the real effect more closely.

Is this for you?

  • You manufacture branded or private-label products and plan many promotions a year with several retail partners.
  • You have weekly sell-out or delivery data covering at least two years and know when which promotion ran.
  • Sales, key account and demand planning want to plan promotions by effect rather than by habit.
First step today

Export the weekly sales of one product at one retail partner over six months, mark the promotion weeks and replace retailer and product names with codes. Use the template below to calculate the additional sales per promotion and compare them with what you had assumed in the annual negotiations.

How to go about it

  1. Define promotion types and the target variable
  2. Collect sell-out data, the promotion calendar and influencing factors
  3. Have the promotion effect predicted
  4. Check against actual sell-out
  5. Use it in annual negotiations and volume planning
  6. Update after each promotion quarter

Templates to copy

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The complete guide

  • 6 steps explaining exactly what to do
  • 3 proven templates to copy into your own AI
  • Safe use: data, checking, deciding, informing
  • Pitfalls, effort and how to recognise success

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LK-03 · Legal status 08.10.2026